Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
