Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
